By Rae Wee
SINGAPORE (Reuters) – The dollar attempted to break above the key 160 yen level on Tuesday but with little success as fears of currency intervention from Japanese officials kept the yen marginally supported against its peers.
Elsewhere, bitcoin recovered some lost ground after its worst day in over two months at the start of the week, in part due to flows out of bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs), analysts said.
The dollar was last 0.08% lower at 159.42 yen, having traded in a tight range throughout the Asian session as traders were leery of testing the key resistance level that had prompted a 9.79 trillion yen ($61.33 billion) currency intervention from Tokyo in late April and early May.
That prevented the yen from notching fresh lows against other currencies, with sterling sitting just below a 16-year high at 202.38 yen.
The similarly retreated from a 17-year top against the yen and last stood at 106.21.
“The market is showing … that they are nervous, and they are very much on edge about this situation,” said Chris Weston, head of research at Pepperstone.
“There are inherent risks to being short the Japanese yen now as a carry trade, which is of course what (authorities) want to see.
“The first port of call is to tell currency speculators and people holding for carry that you’re on notice, if you hold those positions now, you run the risk of a 400-, 500-pip drop in dollar/yen.”
The latest decline in the yen has come on the back of the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) June policy meeting, where policymakers disappointed investors who were betting on an immediate reduction of the BOJ’s massive bond purchases.
Minutes of the meeting out on Monday showed the central bank debated the chance of a near-term interest rate hike with one policymaker calling for an increase “without too much delay”.
In the broader market, the dollar eased slightly ahead of Friday’s release of the U.S. personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index – the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation.
Sterling ticked 0.09% higher to $1.2696, while the Australian dollar rose 0.1% to $0.6663.
The New Zealand dollar was little changed at $0.6124.
Politics were also at the forefront of investors’ minds, with the first U.S. presidential debate between President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump set for Thursday and French elections due to kick off this weekend.
The euro, which has come under pressure amid political turmoil in France in the wake of President Emmanuel Macron’s shock snap election call earlier this month, gained 0.06% to $1.0741.
Still, the common currency was headed for a monthly loss of roughly 1%, owing to the political turmoil.
Against a basket of currencies, the dollar dipped 0.1% to 105.39.
“France’s election will commence on June 30, hence EUR will be affected by political concerns,” said analysts at Sumitomo Mitsui (NYSE:) Banking Corporation in a note. “If the unstable political situation continues, EUR will weaken further against USD.”
In cryptocurrencies, bitcoin jumped more than 3% to $61,319, recovering some of its sharp 6.65% fall in the previous session and having hit an over one-month low. [FTX]
“We’ve seen drawdown, we’ve seen six days in a row of funds coming out of the bitcoin cash ETFs,” said Pepperstone’s Weston.
“, for me, is … a momentum vehicle, and momentum works both ways. If it’s going in one direction and the rate of change is picking up, for me, you stand aside and let the selling happen until it can form a base. And right now, the momentum’s to the downside.”
($1 = 159.6300 yen)
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